# Bitcoin Up or Down on May 25?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 97% implied probability of YES as of Mon, 25 May 2026 15:32:32 GMT. 24h change +43.5pp, 24h volume $200.8K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/bitcoin-up-or-down-on-may-25-2026
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-up-or-down-on-may-25-2026
**Category:** Crypto
**Resolves by:** May 25, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-25T15:32:32.215Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **97¢** (97%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.9pp |
| Δ 24h | +43.5pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $200.8K |
| Lifetime volume | $203.4K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $60.0K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 25, 2026

**Source:** https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT May 24 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the May 25 '26 12:00 ET candle.
> 
> This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT May 24 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the May 25 '26 12:00 ET candle.
> 
> If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50.
> 
> The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar.
> 
> Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 95%): Probability moved up 43.5pp in 24h with 3.3× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Expires in 0h.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x71a7…6fcf` — 69,190.592 shares
- `0xbc9b…1b9c` — 30,322.623 shares
- `0x0fe4…01b7` — 26,569.173 shares
- `0xc882…0662` — 10,278 shares
- `0x4093…5749` — 3,395.796 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x56d5…10a6` — 49,376.07 shares
- `0x5f45…a77a` — 31,936.58 shares
- `0x6e1d…d0fa` — 8,464.052 shares
- `0xc086…b1af` — 7,961.667 shares
- `0x4605…b773` — 5,214.296 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 45 |
| Window start | 2026-05-23T17:00:07.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-25T12:28:04.000Z |
| Range | 46¢ → 97¢ |
| Net change | +46.8pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=bitcoin-up-or-down-on-may-25-2026` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Bitcoin Up or Down on May 25? — 97% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-25T15:32:32.215Z from https://orrery.me/markets/bitcoin-up-or-down-on-may-25-2026.
```

---

*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*