# Bitcoin Up or Down on May 26?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 3% implied probability of YES as of Tue, 26 May 2026 17:07:26 GMT. 24h change -48.4pp, 24h volume $402.6K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/bitcoin-up-or-down-on-may-26-2026
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-up-or-down-on-may-26-2026
**Category:** Crypto
**Resolves by:** May 26, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-26T17:07:26.506Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **3¢** (3%) |
| Δ 1h | -22.9pp |
| Δ 24h | -48.4pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $402.6K |
| Lifetime volume | $405.5K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $22.4K |
| Spread | 0.50pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 26, 2026

**Source:** https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT May 25 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the May 26 '26 12:00 ET candle.
> 
> This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT May 25 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the May 26 '26 12:00 ET candle.
> 
> If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50.
> 
> The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar.
> 
> Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x1956…750e` — 15,554.758 shares
- `0xc882…0662` — 11,817.99 shares
- `0x9ee0…1006` — 9,115.38 shares
- `0xd519…932c` — 5,555.545 shares
- `0x55be…dca3` — 4,309.675 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x0fe4…01b7` — 74,193.899 shares
- `0xbc9b…1b9c` — 55,071.351 shares
- `0xfdc0…e6a1` — 2,284.35 shares
- `0xfae4…299f` — 712.3 shares
- `0x9b11…2543` — 219.78 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 48 |
| Window start | 2026-05-24T17:00:07.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-26T15:19:04.000Z |
| Range | 1¢ → 56¢ |
| Net change | -48.8pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=bitcoin-up-or-down-on-may-26-2026` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Bitcoin Up or Down on May 26? — 3% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-26T17:07:26.506Z from https://orrery.me/markets/bitcoin-up-or-down-on-may-26-2026.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*