# Bitcoin Up or Down on May 28?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 0% implied probability of YES as of Thu, 28 May 2026 16:44:16 GMT. 24h change -50.3pp, 24h volume $218.7K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/bitcoin-up-or-down-on-may-28-2026
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-up-or-down-on-may-28-2026
**Category:** Crypto
**Resolves by:** May 28, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-28T16:44:16.383Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **0¢** (0%) |
| Δ 1h | -0.7pp |
| Δ 24h | -50.3pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $218.7K |
| Lifetime volume | $219.0K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $111.6K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 28, 2026

**Source:** https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT May 27 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the May 28 '26 12:00 ET candle.
> 
> This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT May 27 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the May 28 '26 12:00 ET candle.
> 
> If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50.
> 
> The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar.
> 
> Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 94%): Probability moved down 50.3pp in 24h with 2.0× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x15a9…ec4f` — 10,550 shares
- `0x80cc…b5a4` — 10,196.658 shares
- `0x14e2…282f` — 8,726.493 shares
- `0xc882…0662` — 8,450 shares
- `0xe0b6…7528` — 7,188.005 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x0fe4…01b7` — 58,444.351 shares
- `0x5375…3720` — 2,040.67 shares
- `0x801d…d8e0` — 499.464 shares
- `0xd345…8847` — 300.903 shares
- `0xa04b…6602` — 229.92 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 48 |
| Window start | 2026-05-26T17:00:12.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-28T15:01:05.000Z |
| Range | 0¢ → 51¢ |
| Net change | -50.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=bitcoin-up-or-down-on-may-28-2026` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Bitcoin Up or Down on May 28? — 0% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-28T16:44:16.383Z from https://orrery.me/markets/bitcoin-up-or-down-on-may-28-2026.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*