# Bitcoin Up or Down on May 3?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 100% implied probability of YES as of Sun, 03 May 2026 16:21:48 GMT. 24h change +45.5pp, 24h volume $218.5K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/bitcoin-up-or-down-on-may-3-2026
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-up-or-down-on-may-3-2026
**Category:** Crypto
**Resolves by:** May 3, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-03T16:21:48.530Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **100¢** (100%) |
| Δ 1h | +8.5pp |
| Δ 24h | +45.5pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $218.5K |
| Lifetime volume | $224.7K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $211.2K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 3, 2026

**Source:** https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT May 2 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the May 3 '26 12:00 ET candle.
> 
> This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT May 2 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the May 3 '26 12:00 ET candle.
> 
> If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50.
> 
> The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar.
> 
> Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 83%): Probability moved up 45.5pp in 24h with 1.0× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- **resolution_risk** (confidence 65%): Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xad82…3df1` — 23,022.987 shares
- `0x751a…9ea1` — 18,170.27 shares
- `0x77e7…88ad` — 10,097.27 shares
- `0x6c47…bcb4` — 5,540.08 shares
- `0x6e1d…d0fa` — 4,456.759 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xe5f8…8d75` — 29,877.434 shares
- `0x0fe4…01b7` — 26,939.266 shares
- `0x45b2…cbc1` — 9,999.982 shares
- `0x7689…8ffe` — 5,889.527 shares
- `0x5509…1026` — 5,868.5 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 48 |
| Window start | 2026-05-01T17:00:10.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-03T16:21:04.000Z |
| Range | 31¢ → 100¢ |
| Net change | +50.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=bitcoin-up-or-down-on-may-3-2026` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Bitcoin Up or Down on May 3? — 100% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-03T16:21:48.530Z from https://orrery.me/markets/bitcoin-up-or-down-on-may-3-2026.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*