# Bitcoin Up or Down on May 4?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 92% implied probability of YES as of Mon, 04 May 2026 05:58:28 GMT. 24h change +42.0pp, 24h volume $131.5K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/bitcoin-up-or-down-on-may-4-2026
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-up-or-down-on-may-4-2026
**Category:** Crypto
**Resolves by:** May 4, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-04T05:58:28.776Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **92¢** (92%) |
| Δ 1h | +3.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +42.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $131.5K |
| Lifetime volume | $131.6K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $26.5K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 4, 2026

**Source:** https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT May 3 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the May 4 '26 12:00 ET candle.
> 
> This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT May 3 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the May 4 '26 12:00 ET candle.
> 
> If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50.
> 
> The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar.
> 
> Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 95%): Probability moved up 42.0pp in 24h with 5.0× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Expires in 10h.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x0fe4…01b7` — 9,634.512 shares
- `0x6e1d…d0fa` — 9,021.521 shares
- `0x3885…ca77` — 8,294.942 shares
- `0xbf5f…c035` — 5,820.5 shares
- `0xe5f8…8d75` — 5,661.841 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x3379…f0b4` — 20,175.244 shares
- `0xfae4…299f` — 14,999.909 shares
- `0x55e2…5fc9` — 4,843.44 shares
- `0x02c1…2e70` — 2,540 shares
- `0x62b6…5de0` — 1,976.274 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 38 |
| Window start | 2026-05-02T17:00:08.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-04T05:07:04.000Z |
| Range | 46¢ → 92¢ |
| Net change | +42.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=bitcoin-up-or-down-on-may-4-2026` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Bitcoin Up or Down on May 4? — 92% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-04T05:58:28.776Z from https://orrery.me/markets/bitcoin-up-or-down-on-may-4-2026.
```

---

*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*