# Bitcoin Up or Down on May 5?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 100% implied probability of YES as of Tue, 05 May 2026 16:19:32 GMT. 24h change +58.5pp, 24h volume $233.1K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/bitcoin-up-or-down-on-may-5-2026
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-up-or-down-on-may-5-2026
**Category:** Crypto
**Resolves by:** May 5, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-05T16:19:32.543Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **100¢** (100%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.5pp |
| Δ 24h | +58.5pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $233.1K |
| Lifetime volume | $235.8K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $538.4K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 5, 2026

**Source:** https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT May 4 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the May 5 '26 12:00 ET candle.
> 
> This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT May 4 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the May 5 '26 12:00 ET candle.
> 
> If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50.
> 
> The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar.
> 
> Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 75%): Probability moved up 58.5pp in 24h with 0.4× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- **resolution_risk** (confidence 65%): Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xbc9b…1b9c` — 23,228.746 shares
- `0x6e1d…d0fa` — 8,785.288 shares
- `0xe9c6…95c9` — 8,370.545 shares
- `0xe617…f251` — 5,252.988 shares
- `0x3b34…cca8` — 3,796.288 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x8ff0…a0ed` — 14,111.04 shares
- `0xd338…407d` — 7,521.192 shares
- `0x2298…b75f` — 6,520.396 shares
- `0x02c1…2e70` — 6,499.985 shares
- `0xbc54…2eec` — 3,620 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 49 |
| Window start | 2026-05-03T17:00:10.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-05T16:18:06.000Z |
| Range | 41¢ → 100¢ |
| Net change | +50.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=bitcoin-up-or-down-on-may-5-2026` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Bitcoin Up or Down on May 5? — 100% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-05T16:19:32.543Z from https://orrery.me/markets/bitcoin-up-or-down-on-may-5-2026.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*