# Bitcoin Up or Down on May 6?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 87% implied probability of YES as of Wed, 06 May 2026 11:00:53 GMT. 24h change +37.0pp, 24h volume $170.2K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/bitcoin-up-or-down-on-may-6-2026
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-up-or-down-on-may-6-2026
**Category:** Crypto
**Resolves by:** May 6, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-06T11:00:53.043Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **87¢** (87%) |
| Δ 1h | +12.5pp |
| Δ 24h | +37.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $170.2K |
| Lifetime volume | $170.3K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $31.6K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 6, 2026

**Source:** https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT May 5 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the May 6 '26 12:00 ET candle.
> 
> This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT May 5 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the May 6 '26 12:00 ET candle.
> 
> If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50.
> 
> The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar.
> 
> Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 95%): Probability moved up 37.0pp in 24h with 5.4× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Expires in 5h.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xa295…05d3` — 25,399.993 shares
- `0x28cb…a7ca` — 20,096.681 shares
- `0xfae4…299f` — 20,000 shares
- `0x9da0…523c` — 5,401.99 shares
- `0x3e58…4344` — 2,597.403 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x71a7…6fcf` — 35,414.258 shares
- `0x390d…fc7d` — 10,905.35 shares
- `0xfdc0…e6a1` — 6,580 shares
- `0xec8f…8df8` — 5,029.867 shares
- `0x801d…d8e0` — 3,999.937 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 43 |
| Window start | 2026-05-04T17:00:07.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-06T10:31:06.000Z |
| Range | 30¢ → 83¢ |
| Net change | +33.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=bitcoin-up-or-down-on-may-6-2026` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Bitcoin Up or Down on May 6? — 87% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-06T11:00:53.043Z from https://orrery.me/markets/bitcoin-up-or-down-on-may-6-2026.
```

---

*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*