# Bitcoin Up or Down on May 7?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 28% implied probability of YES as of Thu, 07 May 2026 05:55:34 GMT. 24h change -21.0pp, 24h volume $135.9K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/bitcoin-up-or-down-on-may-7-2026
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-up-or-down-on-may-7-2026
**Category:** Crypto
**Resolves by:** May 7, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-07T05:55:34.214Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **28¢** (28%) |
| Δ 1h | +5.0pp |
| Δ 24h | -21.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $135.9K |
| Lifetime volume | $135.9K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $27.5K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 7, 2026

**Source:** https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT May 6 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the May 7 '26 12:00 ET candle.
> 
> This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT May 6 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the May 7 '26 12:00 ET candle.
> 
> If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50.
> 
> The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar.
> 
> Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Expires in 10h.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xa295…05d3` — 50,350.202 shares
- `0xbc9b…1b9c` — 23,493.83 shares
- `0x4e64…fc32` — 6,911.405 shares
- `0xbf5f…c035` — 1,541.053 shares
- `0x1590…adaf` — 1,415.977 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x3885…ca77` — 21,765.39 shares
- `0x71a7…6fcf` — 19,286.33 shares
- `0xe57a…08f8` — 14,905.111 shares
- `0xfdc0…e6a1` — 13,200.113 shares
- `0x6e1d…d0fa` — 5,411.07 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 38 |
| Window start | 2026-05-05T17:00:09.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-07T05:35:04.000Z |
| Range | 21¢ → 50¢ |
| Net change | -25.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=bitcoin-up-or-down-on-may-7-2026` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Bitcoin Up or Down on May 7? — 28% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-07T05:55:34.214Z from https://orrery.me/markets/bitcoin-up-or-down-on-may-7-2026.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*