# Bitcoin Up or Down on May 9?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 100% implied probability of YES as of Sat, 09 May 2026 16:51:51 GMT. 24h change +64.5pp, 24h volume $356.8K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/bitcoin-up-or-down-on-may-9-2026
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-up-or-down-on-may-9-2026
**Category:** Crypto
**Resolves by:** May 9, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-09T16:51:51.694Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **100¢** (100%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.7pp |
| Δ 24h | +64.5pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $356.8K |
| Lifetime volume | $373.6K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $166.5K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 9, 2026

**Source:** https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT May 8 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the May 9 '26 12:00 ET candle.
> 
> This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT May 8 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the May 9 '26 12:00 ET candle.
> 
> If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50.
> 
> The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar.
> 
> Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 95%): Probability moved up 64.5pp in 24h with 2.1× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- **resolution_risk** (confidence 65%): Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x4ad6…464c` — 66,000 shares
- `0x1ede…46e8` — 53,955.85 shares
- `0xbc9b…1b9c` — 7,471.321 shares
- `0x0fe4…01b7` — 7,222.254 shares
- `0x6e1d…d0fa` — 5,815.515 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xb9f0…dc0a` — 134,250.42 shares
- `0xe9c6…95c9` — 4,556.76 shares
- `0xec8f…8df8` — 3,169.177 shares
- `0xb03c…b352` — 1,101.383 shares
- `0x6c39…06d1` — 1,000 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 49 |
| Window start | 2026-05-07T17:00:14.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-09T16:51:07.000Z |
| Range | 37¢ → 100¢ |
| Net change | +50.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=bitcoin-up-or-down-on-may-9-2026` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Bitcoin Up or Down on May 9? — 100% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-09T16:51:51.694Z from https://orrery.me/markets/bitcoin-up-or-down-on-may-9-2026.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*