# Guangdong Southern Tigers vs. Beijing Ducks

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 100% implied probability of YES as of Sat, 09 May 2026 16:01:40 GMT. 24h change +54.9pp, 24h volume $207.4K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/bkcba-gua-bei-2026-05-09
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/bkcba-gua-bei-2026-05-09
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 16, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-09T16:01:40.152Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **100¢** (100%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +54.9pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $207.4K |
| Lifetime volume | $214.3K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $327.8K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 16, 2026

**Source:** https://www.flashscore.com/basketball/china/cba

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> In the upcoming CBA game, scheduled for May 9 at 7:35AM ET:
> If the Guangdong Southern Tigers win, the market will resolve to "Guangdong Southern Tigers".
> If the Beijing Ducks win, the market will resolve to "Beijing Ducks".
> If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed.
> If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
> The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 30%): UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x161e…6ef0` — 29,036.257 shares
- `0x7120…7c4e` — 12,096.874 shares
- `0x2775…3652` — 4,119.115 shares
- `0xdbdd…a5de` — 3,414.319 shares
- `0x6c85…94a4` — 2,999.98 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x2005…75ea` — 17,469.988 shares
- `0x5fea…78b1` — 9,651.574 shares
- `0xd746…1b6d` — 4,826.53 shares
- `0xda5f…2e9b` — 4,113.95 shares
- `0xb4d2…ce99` — 2,029.231 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 58 |
| Window start | 2026-05-07T08:00:22.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-09T16:01:05.000Z |
| Range | 35¢ → 100¢ |
| Net change | +50.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=bkcba-gua-bei-2026-05-09` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Guangdong Southern Tigers vs. Beijing Ducks — 100% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-09T16:01:40.152Z from https://orrery.me/markets/bkcba-gua-bei-2026-05-09.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*