# Will EC Bahia win on 2026-05-09?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 0% implied probability of YES as of Sun, 10 May 2026 02:23:24 GMT. 24h change -45.5pp, 24h volume $299.1K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/bra-bah-cru-2026-05-09-bah
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/bra-bah-cru-2026-05-09-bah
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 10, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-10T02:23:24.155Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **0¢** (0%) |
| Δ 1h | -30.4pp |
| Δ 24h | -45.5pp |
| Δ 1w | -43.5pp |
| 24h volume | $299.1K |
| Lifetime volume | $299.1K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $137.1K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 10, 2026

**Source:** https://www.cbf.com.br/futebol-brasileiro/competicoes/campeonato-brasileiro-serie-a

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> In the upcoming game, scheduled for May 9, 2026
> If EC Bahia wins, this market will resolve to "Yes".
> Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
> If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed.
> If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No".
> This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time.
> 
> The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 95%): Probability moved down 45.5pp in 24h with 2.2× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- **resolution_risk** (confidence 65%): Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xdb22…6478` — 254,933.566 shares
- `0x1ad6…caad` — 851.333 shares
- `0xbd73…4da1` — 791.194 shares
- `0x6b3a…2841` — 601.58 shares
- `0x8817…cda8` — 402.918 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xe72b…b0a0` — 60,000 shares
- `0xc974…b33b` — 53,352 shares
- `0x4da7…7abd` — 21,600 shares
- `0x39d3…9ef0` — 18,135 shares
- `0xee0b…e6d4` — 17,255.942 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 169 |
| Window start | 2026-05-03T02:00:07.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-10T01:22:05.000Z |
| Range | 30¢ → 49¢ |
| Net change | -14.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=bra-bah-cru-2026-05-09-bah` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will EC Bahia win on 2026-05-09? — 0% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-10T02:23:24.155Z from https://orrery.me/markets/bra-bah-cru-2026-05-09-bah.
```

---

*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*