# Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-05-09?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 0% implied probability of YES as of Sat, 09 May 2026 16:04:25 GMT. 24h change -32.5pp, 24h volume $275.2K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/bun-stu-b04-2026-05-09-b04
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/bun-stu-b04-2026-05-09-b04
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 9, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-09T16:04:25.053Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **0¢** (0%) |
| Δ 1h | -1.3pp |
| Δ 24h | -32.5pp |
| Δ 1w | -29.9pp |
| 24h volume | $275.2K |
| Lifetime volume | $276.8K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $327.7K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 9, 2026

**Source:** https://www.bundesliga.com/en/bundesliga

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> In the upcoming game, scheduled for May 9, 2026
> If Bayer 04 Leverkusen wins, this market will resolve to "Yes".
> Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
> If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed.
> If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No".
> This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time.
> 
> The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 80%): Probability moved down 32.5pp in 24h with 0.8× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- **resolution_risk** (confidence 65%): Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xfd29…77ae` — 128,132.119 shares
- `0x433f…a0dc` — 14,191.668 shares
- `0xf919…3241` — 4,322.895 shares
- `0x4b71…80ec` — 4,215.313 shares
- `0xe5d1…bc55` — 4,166.674 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x507e…beae` — 40,629.983 shares
- `0x5d0c…bceb` — 17,600 shares
- `0x0346…52a5` — 16,560.978 shares
- `0x204f…5e14` — 14,728.58 shares
- `0x2005…75ea` — 13,760.937 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 169 |
| Window start | 2026-05-02T17:00:09.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-09T16:02:06.000Z |
| Range | 0¢ → 34¢ |
| Net change | -29.9pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=bun-stu-b04-2026-05-09-b04` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-05-09? — 0% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-09T16:04:25.053Z from https://orrery.me/markets/bun-stu-b04-2026-05-09-b04.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*