# Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 19% implied probability of YES as of Thu, 14 May 2026 08:21:45 GMT. 24h change -24.0pp, 24h volume $185.0K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/confirmed-case-of-hantavirus-in-us-by-may-15
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/confirmed-case-of-hantavirus-in-us-by-may-15
**Category:** Science
**Resolves by:** May 15, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-14T08:21:45.333Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **19¢** (19%) |
| Δ 1h | -2.0pp |
| Δ 24h | -24.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $185.0K |
| Lifetime volume | $832.6K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $22.4K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 15, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a confirmed case of Hantavirus in the territory of the United States of America reported between market creation and May 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
> 
> Any laboratory-confirmed hantavirus infection identified within U.S. territory will qualify, regardless of where exposure or symptom onset occurred.
> 
> The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information (e.g., the CDC); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Expires in 16h.

## Recent large trades on this market

| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | USD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 14, 08:16 UTC | `Hungry-Overhead` | SELL | NO | $5.32 |

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x44c1…ebc1` — 32,008.643 shares
- `0x0d7e…cb13` — 16,350.322 shares
- `0xc4a0…bc3c` — 9,152.243 shares
- `0x2b67…b814` — 8,601.145 shares
- `0x7d58…cfcc` — 4,070.728 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xbacd…ab35` — 11,665.573 shares
- `0x53e5…6177` — 10,783.122 shares
- `0xf57a…72a5` — 8,773.406 shares
- `0xf0d5…c665` — 6,420.52 shares
- `0xa7a6…254e` — 6,174.186 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 161 |
| Window start | 2026-05-07T17:00:09.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-14T08:21:04.000Z |
| Range | 16¢ → 86¢ |
| Net change | -18.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=confirmed-case-of-hantavirus-in-us-by-may-15` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? — 19% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-14T08:21:45.333Z from https://orrery.me/markets/confirmed-case-of-hantavirus-in-us-by-may-15.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*