# Counter-Strike: 9z vs magic - Map 2 Winner

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 100% implied probability of YES as of Fri, 15 May 2026 14:48:59 GMT. 24h change +37.5pp, 24h volume $328.0K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/cs2-9z-mgc-2026-05-15-game2
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/cs2-9z-mgc-2026-05-15-game2
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 15, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-15T14:48:59.949Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **100¢** (100%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +37.5pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $328.0K |
| Lifetime volume | $328.0K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $678.9K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 15, 2026

**Source:** https://hltv.org

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the Counter-Strike Quarterfinal 3 match between 9z and magic in the PGL Astana Playoffs, initially scheduled for May 15 at 7:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to "9z" if 9z win Map 2 against magic.
> 
> This market will resolve to "magic" if magic win Map 2 against 9z.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and Map 2 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Map 2. 
> 
> If Map 2 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. 
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. 
> 
> The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 65%): Expires in 3h. UMA dispute is active.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x30c7…ac3b` — 24,999.953 shares
- `0x3b4c…e850` — 15,084.24 shares
- `0x31b0…8bf3` — 12,810 shares
- `0x4e8d…febf` — 10,611.61 shares
- `0x8c0b…7aa5` — 9,361.54 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x880b…c98b` — 26,089.623 shares
- `0x3833…33d1` — 20,000 shares
- `0x634a…6de3` — 11,979.248 shares
- `0xbf5e…4189` — 10,029.413 shares
- `0xd3b0…329e` — 8,750 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 49 |
| Window start | 2026-05-13T14:00:07.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-15T14:48:18.000Z |
| Range | 55¢ → 100¢ |
| Net change | +35.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=cs2-9z-mgc-2026-05-15-game2` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Counter-Strike: 9z vs magic - Map 2 Winner — 100% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-15T14:48:59.949Z from https://orrery.me/markets/cs2-9z-mgc-2026-05-15-game2.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*