# Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Aurora Gaming - Map 1 Winner

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 0% implied probability of YES as of Wed, 13 May 2026 12:37:03 GMT. 24h change +0.0pp, 24h volume $349.9K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/cs2-mglz-aur1-2026-05-13-game1
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/cs2-mglz-aur1-2026-05-13-game1
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 13, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-13T12:37:03.383Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **0¢** (0%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $349.9K |
| Lifetime volume | $349.9K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $371.2K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 13, 2026

**Source:** https://hltv.org

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round 5 match between TheMongolz and Aurora Gaming in the PGL Astana Group Stage, initially scheduled for May 13 at 7:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to "TheMongolz" if TheMongolz win Map 1 against Aurora Gaming.
> 
> This market will resolve to "Aurora Gaming" if Aurora Gaming win Map 1 against TheMongolz.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and Map 1 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Map 1. 
> 
> If Map 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. 
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. 
> 
> The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 65%): Expires in 3h. UMA dispute is active.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x2005…75ea` — 13,116.258 shares
- `0x72aa…90e0` — 12,000.006 shares
- `0xfdc0…4b85` — 10,569.964 shares
- `0xe907…cff6` — 9,495.417 shares
- `0xa635…cf50` — 8,824.67 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x56c9…0d9e` — 16,890.785 shares
- `0xfe78…0319` — 12,688.493 shares
- `0xe557…9597` — 10,000 shares
- `0x60d0…e05f` — 8,832.967 shares
- `0x3833…33d1` — 8,000 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 22 |
| Window start | 2026-05-12T16:00:07.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-13T12:36:08.000Z |
| Range | 0¢ → 63¢ |
| Net change | -52.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=cs2-mglz-aur1-2026-05-13-game1` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Aurora Gaming - Map 1 Winner — 0% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-13T12:37:03.383Z from https://orrery.me/markets/cs2-mglz-aur1-2026-05-13-game1.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*