# Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 Winner

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 0% implied probability of YES as of Wed, 13 May 2026 13:52:48 GMT. 24h change +0.0pp, 24h volume $305.1K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/cs2-mglz-aur1-2026-05-13-game2
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/cs2-mglz-aur1-2026-05-13-game2
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 13, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-13T13:52:48.565Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **0¢** (0%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $305.1K |
| Lifetime volume | $305.1K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $277.0K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 13, 2026

**Source:** https://hltv.org

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round 5 match between TheMongolz and Aurora Gaming in the PGL Astana Group Stage, initially scheduled for May 13 at 7:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to "TheMongolz" if TheMongolz win Map 2 against Aurora Gaming.
> 
> This market will resolve to "Aurora Gaming" if Aurora Gaming win Map 2 against TheMongolz.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and Map 2 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Map 2. 
> 
> If Map 2 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. 
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. 
> 
> The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 65%): Expires in 2h. UMA dispute is active.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xa69d…509b` — 16,999.965 shares
- `0x31b0…8bf3` — 9,999.895 shares
- `0x2005…75ea` — 9,934.75 shares
- `0xa635…cf50` — 9,442.4 shares
- `0x67bb…b6ef` — 9,166.573 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x56c9…0d9e` — 24,329.224 shares
- `0xf68a…5b1b` — 15,367.951 shares
- `0x336b…1233` — 8,737.409 shares
- `0x0997…c9f6` — 7,623 shares
- `0x13f0…a50f` — 7,165 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 23 |
| Window start | 2026-05-12T16:00:06.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-13T13:52:09.000Z |
| Range | 0¢ → 67¢ |
| Net change | -59.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=cs2-mglz-aur1-2026-05-13-game2` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 Winner — 0% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-13T13:52:48.565Z from https://orrery.me/markets/cs2-mglz-aur1-2026-05-13-game2.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*