# Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 100% implied probability of YES as of Tue, 12 May 2026 11:50:03 GMT. 24h change +0.0pp, 24h volume $342.1K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/cs2-mglz-fal2-2026-05-12-game2
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/cs2-mglz-fal2-2026-05-12-game2
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 12, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-12T11:50:03.078Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **100¢** (100%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $342.1K |
| Lifetime volume | $342.1K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $402.6K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 12, 2026

**Source:** https://hltv.org

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round 4 match between TheMongolz and Team Falcons in the PGL Astana Group Stage, initially scheduled for May 12 at 4:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to "TheMongolz" if TheMongolz win Map 2 against Team Falcons.
> 
> This market will resolve to "Team Falcons" if Team Falcons win Map 2 against TheMongolz.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and Map 2 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Map 2. 
> 
> If Map 2 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. 
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. 
> 
> The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 65%): Expires in 2h. UMA dispute is active.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x2005…75ea` — 19,472.43 shares
- `0x31b0…8bf3` — 8,746.86 shares
- `0x56c9…0d9e` — 7,703.969 shares
- `0x9ad6…4251` — 7,272 shares
- `0xd3b0…329e` — 6,750 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x1341…0853` — 13,685.393 shares
- `0xadfa…324e` — 12,000 shares
- `0x30c7…ac3b` — 10,000 shares
- `0x8cbf…0eb4` — 9,999.974 shares
- `0xfdc0…4b85` — 6,255.124 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 18 |
| Window start | 2026-05-11T19:00:13.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-12T11:37:08.000Z |
| Range | 43¢ → 100¢ |
| Net change | +55.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=cs2-mglz-fal2-2026-05-12-game2` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner — 100% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-12T11:50:03.078Z from https://orrery.me/markets/cs2-mglz-fal2-2026-05-12-game2.
```

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