# Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Aurora Gaming - Map 1 Winner

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 100% implied probability of YES as of Fri, 15 May 2026 07:59:03 GMT. 24h change +50.4pp, 24h volume $229.6K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/cs2-mouz-aur1-2026-05-15-game1
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/cs2-mouz-aur1-2026-05-15-game1
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 15, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-15T07:59:03.064Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **100¢** (100%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +50.4pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $229.6K |
| Lifetime volume | $229.6K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $342.9K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 15, 2026

**Source:** https://hltv.org

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the Counter-Strike Quarterfinal 1 match between MOUZ and Aurora Gaming in the PGL Astana Playoffs, initially scheduled for May 15 at 1:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to "MOUZ" if MOUZ win Map 1 against Aurora Gaming.
> 
> This market will resolve to "Aurora Gaming" if Aurora Gaming win Map 1 against MOUZ.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and Map 1 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Map 1. 
> 
> If Map 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. 
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. 
> 
> The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 65%): Expires in 3h. UMA dispute is active.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x64c5…d255` — 26,325 shares
- `0x996a…e3cc` — 14,962.89 shares
- `0xcf60…a6f5` — 12,538.402 shares
- `0xdd88…dadb` — 6,744 shares
- `0x8adb…e4f6` — 2,355.295 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x5e6e…be00` — 12,648.98 shares
- `0xfe78…0319` — 7,231.528 shares
- `0x67bb…b6ef` — 6,603.389 shares
- `0x03f8…d85a` — 6,225.957 shares
- `0xa503…c5b9` — 3,151.973 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 44 |
| Window start | 2026-05-13T13:00:08.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-15T07:58:09.000Z |
| Range | 17¢ → 100¢ |
| Net change | +50.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=cs2-mouz-aur1-2026-05-15-game1` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Aurora Gaming - Map 1 Winner — 100% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-15T07:59:03.064Z from https://orrery.me/markets/cs2-mouz-aur1-2026-05-15-game1.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*