# Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 0% implied probability of YES as of Sun, 03 May 2026 20:22:37 GMT. 24h change +0.0pp, 24h volume $741.1K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/cs2-navi-vit-2026-05-03-game2
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/cs2-navi-vit-2026-05-03-game2
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 3, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-03T20:22:37.485Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **0¢** (0%) |
| Δ 1h | -25.9pp |
| Δ 24h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $741.1K |
| Lifetime volume | $741.1K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $550.2K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 3, 2026

**Source:** https://hltv.org

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the Counter-Strike Grand final match between Natus Vincere and Vitality in the BLAST Rivals Playoffs, initially scheduled for May 3 at 1:30PM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to "Natus Vincere" if Natus Vincere win Map 2 against Vitality.
> 
> This market will resolve to "Vitality" if Vitality win Map 2 against Natus Vincere.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and Map 2 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Map 2. 
> 
> If Map 2 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. 
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. 
> 
> The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 65%): Expires in 1h. UMA dispute is active.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xf49a…8981` — 92,950 shares
- `0x2005…75ea` — 53,628.171 shares
- `0x67bb…b6ef` — 30,605.98 shares
- `0xf070…ac55` — 18,888 shares
- `0x880b…c98b` — 13,662.007 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xa5ea…d96a` — 103,733.871 shares
- `0x751a…9ea1` — 56,207.95 shares
- `0x61fe…0956` — 36,000 shares
- `0x5e04…08a2` — 30,200 shares
- `0xd703…71bf` — 30,000 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 23 |
| Window start | 2026-05-02T23:00:08.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-03T20:14:06.000Z |
| Range | 0¢ → 40¢ |
| Net change | -34.4pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=cs2-navi-vit-2026-05-03-game2` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner — 0% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-03T20:22:37.485Z from https://orrery.me/markets/cs2-navi-vit-2026-05-03-game2.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*