# Map Handicap: VIT (-2.5) vs Natus Vincere (+2.5)

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 64% implied probability of YES as of Sun, 03 May 2026 19:13:30 GMT. 24h change +0.0pp, 24h volume $254.2K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/cs2-navi-vit-2026-05-03-map-handicap-home-2pt5
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/cs2-navi-vit-2026-05-03-map-handicap-home-2pt5
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 3, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-03T19:13:30.904Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **64¢** (64%) |
| Δ 1h | +58.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $254.2K |
| Lifetime volume | $254.2K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $9.3K |
| Spread | 12.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 3, 2026

**Source:** https://hltv.org

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the Counter-Strike Grand final match between Natus Vincere and Vitality in the BLAST Rivals Playoffs, initially scheduled for May 3 at 1:30PM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to "Vitality" if Vitality wins 3 or more maps than Natus Vincere in this match.
> 
> Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Natus Vincere". 
> 
> Maps won by forfeit, disqualification, walkover, or default are counted towards the handicap, provided that the match is completed.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all for any reason), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. 
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's match forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to 50-50. 
> 
> If the match ends due to the clinching map being forfeited this will count as a completed match.
> 
> The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 55%): Expires in 4h. Spread is extremely wide.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x3993…cded` — 37,011.497 shares
- `0xdb85…152f` — 30,033.977 shares
- `0xf7c2…9b8d` — 20,831.25 shares
- `0xcf60…a6f5` — 16,500 shares
- `0x6902…b4ca` — 15,625 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xdd92…6b2a` — 60,049.882 shares
- `0x1341…0853` — 39,999.875 shares
- `0x5c3a…020b` — 13,677.203 shares
- `0xadfa…324e` — 12,000 shares
- `0xf070…ac55` — 11,111 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 22 |
| Window start | 2026-05-02T23:00:08.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-03T19:13:06.000Z |
| Range | 5¢ → 56¢ |
| Net change | +0.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=cs2-navi-vit-2026-05-03-map-handicap-home-2pt5` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Map Handicap: VIT (-2.5) vs Natus Vincere (+2.5) — 64% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-03T19:13:30.904Z from https://orrery.me/markets/cs2-navi-vit-2026-05-03-map-handicap-home-2pt5.
```

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