# Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 0% implied probability of YES as of Fri, 15 May 2026 23:37:27 GMT. 24h change -27.0pp, 24h volume $297.8K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/cs2-navi-vit-2026-05-15-game1
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/cs2-navi-vit-2026-05-15-game1
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 16, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-15T23:37:27.012Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **0¢** (0%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | -27.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $297.8K |
| Lifetime volume | $297.8K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $407.4K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 16, 2026

**Source:** https://hltv.org

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the Counter-Strike Quarterfinal 2 match between Natus Vincere and Vitality in the IEM Atlanta Playoffs, initially scheduled for May 15 at 4:30PM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to "Natus Vincere" if Natus Vincere win Map 1 against Vitality.
> 
> This market will resolve to "Vitality" if Vitality win Map 1 against Natus Vincere.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and Map 1 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Map 1. 
> 
> If Map 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. 
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. 
> 
> The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 65%): Expires in 4h. UMA dispute is active.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x0e1b…ecaf` — 18,720.757 shares
- `0x4713…4d21` — 13,433.626 shares
- `0x3e53…bf9a` — 11,158.545 shares
- `0x26f8…3452` — 8,888 shares
- `0xdb63…a71d` — 8,828.252 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x3936…366d` — 10,070.635 shares
- `0x9ad6…4251` — 6,923 shares
- `0x67ac…edf1` — 6,733.996 shares
- `0x13f0…a50f` — 6,644 shares
- `0xfdc0…4b85` — 6,318.039 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 43 |
| Window start | 2026-05-14T05:00:08.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-15T23:37:05.000Z |
| Range | 0¢ → 40¢ |
| Net change | -29.4pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=cs2-navi-vit-2026-05-15-game1` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner — 0% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-15T23:37:27.012Z from https://orrery.me/markets/cs2-navi-vit-2026-05-15-game1.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*