# Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 100% implied probability of YES as of Sat, 16 May 2026 00:34:28 GMT. 24h change +64.5pp, 24h volume $342.9K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/cs2-navi-vit-2026-05-15-game2
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/cs2-navi-vit-2026-05-15-game2
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 16, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-16T00:34:28.594Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **100¢** (100%) |
| Δ 1h | +46.5pp |
| Δ 24h | +64.5pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $342.9K |
| Lifetime volume | $342.9K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $198.1K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 16, 2026

**Source:** https://hltv.org

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the Counter-Strike Quarterfinal 2 match between Natus Vincere and Vitality in the IEM Atlanta Playoffs, initially scheduled for May 15 at 4:30PM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to "Natus Vincere" if Natus Vincere win Map 2 against Vitality.
> 
> This market will resolve to "Vitality" if Vitality win Map 2 against Natus Vincere.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and Map 2 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Map 2. 
> 
> If Map 2 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. 
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. 
> 
> The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 92%): Probability moved up 64.5pp in 24h with 1.7× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- **resolution_risk** (confidence 65%): Expires in 3h. UMA dispute is active.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x880b…c98b` — 40,663.707 shares
- `0x0e1b…ecaf` — 16,122.559 shares
- `0x507e…beae` — 12,999.774 shares
- `0x93cc…6ffc` — 11,387.76 shares
- `0xed88…e838` — 10,034.351 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xdb63…a71d` — 36,137.137 shares
- `0x336b…1233` — 12,999.898 shares
- `0xd202…8973` — 9,058.276 shares
- `0xee00…cea1` — 8,530.86 shares
- `0xbf5e…4189` — 8,000 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 44 |
| Window start | 2026-05-14T05:00:10.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-16T00:34:08.000Z |
| Range | 32¢ → 100¢ |
| Net change | +66.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=cs2-navi-vit-2026-05-15-game2` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner — 100% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-16T00:34:28.594Z from https://orrery.me/markets/cs2-navi-vit-2026-05-15-game2.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*