# Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winner

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 43% implied probability of YES as of Sat, 23 May 2026 18:48:47 GMT. 24h change +0.0pp, 24h volume $2.1K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/dota2-aur1-flc-2026-05-23-game1
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/dota2-aur1-flc-2026-05-23-game1
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 23, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-23T18:48:47.660Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **43¢** (43%) |
| Δ 1h | -1.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $2.1K |
| Lifetime volume | $2.1K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $47.1K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 23, 2026

**Source:** https://www.dotabuff.com

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the Dota 2 Lower Bracket Semifinal match between Aurora and Team Falcons in the DreamLeague Playoffs, initially scheduled for May 23 at 1:00PM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to "Aurora" if Aurora win Game 1 against Team Falcons.
> 
> This market will resolve to "Team Falcons" if Team Falcons win Game 1 against Aurora.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 1 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 1. 
> 
> If Game 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. 
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. 
> 
> The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Expires in 2h.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xcd36…0f01` — 41,972.19 shares
- `0xd3b0…329e` — 29,999.984 shares
- `0xcf60…a6f5` — 29,999.924 shares
- `0xffe9…a70e` — 28,000 shares
- `0x67bb…b6ef` — 21,369.039 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xe16d…5e30` — 111,462.152 shares
- `0xc44f…d49f` — 30,788.921 shares
- `0x182b…f3d3` — 12,043.946 shares
- `0x507e…beae` — 10,819.917 shares
- `0x55d9…832c` — 7,999.957 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 4 |
| Window start | 2026-05-23T14:00:04.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-23T16:42:04.000Z |
| Range | 42¢ → 43¢ |
| Net change | +0.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=dota2-aur1-flc-2026-05-23-game1` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winner — 43% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-23T18:48:47.660Z from https://orrery.me/markets/dota2-aur1-flc-2026-05-23-game1.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*