# Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winner

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 44% implied probability of YES as of Sat, 23 May 2026 19:52:36 GMT. 24h change +0.0pp, 24h volume $7.13.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/dota2-aur1-flc-2026-05-23-game2
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/dota2-aur1-flc-2026-05-23-game2
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 23, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-23T19:52:36.110Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **44¢** (44%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $7.13 |
| Lifetime volume | $7.13 |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $5.0K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 23, 2026

**Source:** https://www.dotabuff.com

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the Dota 2 Lower Bracket Semifinal match between Aurora and Team Falcons in the DreamLeague Playoffs, initially scheduled for May 23 at 1:00PM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to "Aurora" if Aurora win Game 2 against Team Falcons.
> 
> This market will resolve to "Team Falcons" if Team Falcons win Game 2 against Aurora.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 2 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 2. 
> 
> If Game 2 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. 
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. 
> 
> The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Expires in 1h.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xfc25…1f7f` — 66,172.34 shares
- `0x996a…e3cc` — 35,535 shares
- `0x3af1…d739` — 32,320.072 shares
- `0xffe9…a70e` — 26,952.919 shares
- `0x67bb…b6ef` — 24,999.976 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xe16d…5e30` — 129,581.432 shares
- `0x2146…d41b` — 18,357.569 shares
- `0x182b…f3d3` — 16,999.853 shares
- `0xc04e…75d9` — 10,143.01 shares
- `0x2be0…6dee` — 10,000 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 7 |
| Window start | 2026-05-23T14:00:04.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-23T19:52:04.000Z |
| Range | 42¢ → 100¢ |
| Net change | +31.9pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=dota2-aur1-flc-2026-05-23-game2` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winner — 44% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-23T19:52:36.110Z from https://orrery.me/markets/dota2-aur1-flc-2026-05-23-game2.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*