# Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 0% implied probability of YES as of Thu, 14 May 2026 17:13:28 GMT. 24h change -54.4pp, 24h volume $328.0K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/dota2-aur1-ts8-2026-05-14-game2
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/dota2-aur1-ts8-2026-05-14-game2
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 14, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-14T17:13:28.858Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **0¢** (0%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | -54.4pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $328.0K |
| Lifetime volume | $328.0K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $159.7K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 14, 2026

**Source:** https://www.dotabuff.com

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the Dota 2 match between Aurora and Team Spirit in the DreamLeague Group A, initially scheduled for May 14 at 9:30AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to "Aurora" if Aurora win Game 2 against Team Spirit.
> 
> This market will resolve to "Team Spirit" if Team Spirit win Game 2 against Aurora.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 2 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 2. 
> 
> If Game 2 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. 
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. 
> 
> The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 65%): Expires in 0h. UMA dispute is active.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x5a05…12a2` — 13,841.237 shares
- `0x507e…beae` — 13,690.006 shares
- `0xfa88…85a5` — 12,029.996 shares
- `0x55d9…832c` — 9,499.964 shares
- `0x3a09…f9f7` — 9,298.929 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xe16d…5e30` — 48,840.282 shares
- `0xcd36…0f01` — 28,788.57 shares
- `0x67bb…b6ef` — 18,452.745 shares
- `0xd3b0…329e` — 9,500 shares
- `0xf3ce…a57a` — 7,655.586 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 52 |
| Window start | 2026-05-12T15:00:15.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-14T17:13:13.000Z |
| Range | 0¢ → 55¢ |
| Net change | -50.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=dota2-aur1-ts8-2026-05-14-game2` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner — 0% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-14T17:13:28.858Z from https://orrery.me/markets/dota2-aur1-ts8-2026-05-14-game2.
```

---

*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*