# Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 Winner

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 100% implied probability of YES as of Fri, 22 May 2026 21:51:46 GMT. 24h change +0.0pp, 24h volume $558.0K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/dota2-aur1-tundra-2026-05-22-game2
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/dota2-aur1-tundra-2026-05-22-game2
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 23, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-22T21:51:46.225Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **100¢** (100%) |
| Δ 1h | +59.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $558.0K |
| Lifetime volume | $558.0K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $388.0K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 23, 2026

**Source:** https://www.dotabuff.com

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the Dota 2 Lower Bracket Quarterfinals 1 match between Aurora and Tundra Esports in the DreamLeague Playoffs, initially scheduled for May 22 at 1:30PM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to "Aurora" if Aurora win Game 2 against Tundra Esports.
> 
> This market will resolve to "Tundra Esports" if Tundra Esports win Game 2 against Aurora.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 2 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 2. 
> 
> If Game 2 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. 
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. 
> 
> The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 65%): Expires in 3h. UMA dispute is active.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xffe9…a70e` — 40,378.277 shares
- `0x5e04…08a2` — 34,391.19 shares
- `0xd3b0…329e` — 34,250 shares
- `0x9cd1…285d` — 26,800 shares
- `0x0dcf…c556` — 25,217.815 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xe16d…5e30` — 69,013.445 shares
- `0xf070…ac55` — 33,115.519 shares
- `0x2146…d41b` — 32,473.151 shares
- `0xcf60…a6f5` — 15,000 shares
- `0xf3ce…a57a` — 11,308.847 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 4 |
| Window start | 2026-05-22T19:00:08.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-22T21:49:05.000Z |
| Range | 55¢ → 100¢ |
| Net change | +44.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=dota2-aur1-tundra-2026-05-22-game2` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 Winner — 100% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-22T21:51:46.225Z from https://orrery.me/markets/dota2-aur1-tundra-2026-05-22-game2.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*