# Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION - Game 1 Winner

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 52% implied probability of YES as of Thu, 21 May 2026 14:57:41 GMT. 24h change -1.5pp, 24h volume $10.4K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/dota2-flc-pari-2026-05-21-game1
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/dota2-flc-pari-2026-05-21-game1
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 21, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-21T14:57:41.470Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **52¢** (52%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | -1.5pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $10.4K |
| Lifetime volume | $10.4K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $37.5K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 21, 2026

**Source:** https://www.dotabuff.com

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the Dota 2 Upper bracket semifinal 1 match between Team Falcons and PARIVISION in the DreamLeague Playoffs, initially scheduled for May 21 at 9:30AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to "Team Falcons" if Team Falcons win Game 1 against PARIVISION.
> 
> This market will resolve to "PARIVISION" if PARIVISION win Game 1 against Team Falcons.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 1 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 1. 
> 
> If Game 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. 
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. 
> 
> The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Expires in 5h.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xb489…de6b` — 60,060.06 shares
- `0xa16a…33a1` — 55,555 shares
- `0x3b4c…e850` — 51,000 shares
- `0x37e4…c991` — 50,000 shares
- `0x6049…f14f` — 47,584.03 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xa5ea…d96a` — 332,787.487 shares
- `0xe16d…5e30` — 113,169.175 shares
- `0x2146…d41b` — 25,999.989 shares
- `0xf3ce…a57a` — 21,818.427 shares
- `0x08c2…c023` — 18,802.176 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 40 |
| Window start | 2026-05-19T23:00:09.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-21T13:20:10.000Z |
| Range | 50¢ → 55¢ |
| Net change | +1.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=dota2-flc-pari-2026-05-21-game1` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION - Game 1 Winner — 52% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-21T14:57:41.470Z from https://orrery.me/markets/dota2-flc-pari-2026-05-21-game1.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*