# Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winner

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 0% implied probability of YES as of Fri, 15 May 2026 20:05:16 GMT. 24h change +0.0pp, 24h volume $235.1K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/dota2-liquid-flc-2026-05-15-game1
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/dota2-liquid-flc-2026-05-15-game1
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 15, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-15T20:05:16.624Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **0¢** (0%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $235.1K |
| Lifetime volume | $235.1K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $170.0K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 15, 2026

**Source:** https://www.dotabuff.com

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the Dota 2 match between Team Liquid and Team Falcons in the DreamLeague Group A, initially scheduled for May 15 at 1:00PM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to "Team Liquid" if Team Liquid win Game 1 against Team Falcons.
> 
> This market will resolve to "Team Falcons" if Team Falcons win Game 1 against Team Liquid.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 1 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 1. 
> 
> If Game 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. 
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. 
> 
> The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 65%): Expires in 1h. UMA dispute is active.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xc0f5…3d04` — 49,142.667 shares
- `0xd6f5…f3b5` — 22,225.973 shares
- `0xd06c…cdaf` — 6,199.006 shares
- `0x507e…beae` — 5,135.994 shares
- `0xbff7…92fb` — 4,999.99 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x6049…f14f` — 28,424.34 shares
- `0xd3b0…329e` — 16,749.996 shares
- `0x42bd…12ca` — 10,685.61 shares
- `0x2586…f071` — 5,405.673 shares
- `0x60d0…e05f` — 5,000 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 23 |
| Window start | 2026-05-14T22:00:05.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-15T20:05:05.000Z |
| Range | 0¢ → 51¢ |
| Net change | -50.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=dota2-liquid-flc-2026-05-15-game1` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winner — 0% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-15T20:05:16.624Z from https://orrery.me/markets/dota2-liquid-flc-2026-05-15-game1.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*