# Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 59% implied probability of YES as of Thu, 21 May 2026 11:36:14 GMT. 24h change -3.0pp, 24h volume $9.2K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/dota2-navi-playti-2026-05-21-game1
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/dota2-navi-playti-2026-05-21-game1
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 21, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-21T11:36:14.184Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **59¢** (59%) |
| Δ 1h | +2.0pp |
| Δ 24h | -3.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $9.2K |
| Lifetime volume | $9.2K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $39.8K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 21, 2026

**Source:** https://www.dotabuff.com

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the Dota 2 Lower Bracket Round 1 match between Natus Vincere and PlayTime in the DreamLeague Playoffs, initially scheduled for May 21 at 6:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to "Natus Vincere" if Natus Vincere win Game 1 against PlayTime.
> 
> This market will resolve to "PlayTime" if PlayTime win Game 1 against Natus Vincere.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 1 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 1. 
> 
> If Game 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. 
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. 
> 
> The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Expires in 2h.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xc6c6…492b` — 34,852.85 shares
- `0xd3b0…329e` — 12,749.991 shares
- `0x3af1…d739` — 11,313.955 shares
- `0x2586…f071` — 10,343.653 shares
- `0x93bd…bbc5` — 7,347.782 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xe16d…5e30` — 48,252.485 shares
- `0x507e…beae` — 14,362.111 shares
- `0x05a7…42e6` — 10,410.948 shares
- `0x0dcf…c556` — 9,928.269 shares
- `0xd06c…cdaf` — 7,885.677 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 37 |
| Window start | 2026-05-19T23:00:07.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-21T10:03:06.000Z |
| Range | 50¢ → 62¢ |
| Net change | +7.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=dota2-navi-playti-2026-05-21-game1` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner — 59% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-21T11:36:14.184Z from https://orrery.me/markets/dota2-navi-playti-2026-05-21-game1.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*