# Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 3 Winner

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 100% implied probability of YES as of Sun, 24 May 2026 18:41:16 GMT. 24h change +0.0pp, 24h volume $789.2K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/dota2-pari-aur1-2026-05-24-game3
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/dota2-pari-aur1-2026-05-24-game3
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 24, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-24T18:41:16.137Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **100¢** (100%) |
| Δ 1h | +52.4pp |
| Δ 24h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $789.2K |
| Lifetime volume | $789.2K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $776.4K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 24, 2026

**Source:** https://www.dotabuff.com

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the Dota 2 Grand final match between PARIVISION and Aurora in the DreamLeague Playoffs, initially scheduled for May 24 at 10:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to "PARIVISION" if PARIVISION win Game 3 against Aurora.
> 
> This market will resolve to "Aurora" if Aurora win Game 3 against PARIVISION.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 3 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 3. 
> 
> If Game 3 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. 
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. 
> 
> The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 65%): Expires in 1h. UMA dispute is active.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xe16d…5e30` — 150,798.437 shares
- `0xa5ea…d96a` — 36,684.489 shares
- `0xcf60…a6f5` — 31,445.546 shares
- `0x3b4c…e850` — 27,600 shares
- `0x751a…9ea1` — 25,011.99 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x3af1…d739` — 51,680.987 shares
- `0x0dcf…c556` — 37,000 shares
- `0xc0f5…3d04` — 16,939.43 shares
- `0x37e4…c991` — 16,370.901 shares
- `0x8c0b…7aa5` — 15,674.855 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 6 |
| Window start | 2026-05-24T14:00:06.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-24T18:41:04.000Z |
| Range | 52¢ → 100¢ |
| Net change | +42.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=dota2-pari-aur1-2026-05-24-game3` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 3 Winner — 100% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-24T18:41:16.137Z from https://orrery.me/markets/dota2-pari-aur1-2026-05-24-game3.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*