# Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 4 Winner

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 42% implied probability of YES as of Sun, 24 May 2026 19:41:04 GMT. 24h change +0.0pp, 24h volume $586.3K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/dota2-pari-aur1-2026-05-24-game4
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/dota2-pari-aur1-2026-05-24-game4
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 24, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-24T19:41:04.332Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **42¢** (42%) |
| Δ 1h | -14.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $586.3K |
| Lifetime volume | $586.3K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $23.7K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 24, 2026

**Source:** https://www.dotabuff.com

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the Dota 2 Grand final match between PARIVISION and Aurora in the DreamLeague Playoffs, initially scheduled for May 24 at 10:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to "PARIVISION" if PARIVISION win Game 4 against Aurora.
> 
> This market will resolve to "Aurora" if Aurora win Game 4 against PARIVISION.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 4 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 4. 
> 
> If Game 4 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. 
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. 
> 
> The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Expires in 0h.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xe16d…5e30` — 144,015.739 shares
- `0x5dab…22e1` — 51,538.964 shares
- `0xcf60…a6f5` — 33,969.52 shares
- `0xd3b0…329e` — 28,249.935 shares
- `0x86e9…4cdf` — 19,705.787 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x3b4c…e850` — 101,000 shares
- `0x3af1…d739` — 67,782.183 shares
- `0x0dcf…c556` — 25,707.625 shares
- `0xf68a…5b1b` — 18,951.12 shares
- `0x5038…6236` — 18,706.157 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 7 |
| Window start | 2026-05-24T14:00:06.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-24T19:05:04.000Z |
| Range | 22¢ → 57¢ |
| Net change | -28.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=dota2-pari-aur1-2026-05-24-game4` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 4 Winner — 42% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-24T19:41:04.332Z from https://orrery.me/markets/dota2-pari-aur1-2026-05-24-game4.
```

---

*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*