# Dota 2: PlayTime vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - 1win Essence Playoffs

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 100% implied probability of YES as of Sun, 10 May 2026 21:34:47 GMT. 24h change +0.0pp, 24h volume $270.3K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/dota2-playti-ngx-2026-05-10
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/dota2-playti-ngx-2026-05-10
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 11, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-10T21:34:47.214Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **100¢** (100%) |
| Δ 1h | +23.9pp |
| Δ 24h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $270.3K |
| Lifetime volume | $270.3K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $150.3K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 11, 2026

**Source:** https://www.dotabuff.com

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the Dota 2 Lower bracket semifinal match between PlayTime and Nigma Galaxy in the 1win Essence Playoffs, initially scheduled for May 10 at 2:00PM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to "PlayTime" if PlayTime win the match against Nigma Galaxy.
> 
> This market will resolve to "Nigma Galaxy" if Nigma Galaxy win the match against PlayTime.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. 
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. 
> 
> If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. 
> 
> The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
> 
> In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 65%): Expires in 3h. UMA dispute is active.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xe16d…5e30` — 174,436.785 shares
- `0x2a2c…9bc1` — 32,735.666 shares
- `0x3b63…4acd` — 9,972.69 shares
- `0xfe9c…4cb4` — 6,773.57 shares
- `0xbfd7…f0bf` — 1,466.78 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x1a5c…a375` — 189,051.381 shares
- `0x9eca…5a59` — 23,210.978 shares
- `0x4713…4d21` — 3,700.976 shares
- `0x1624…bf63` — 2,785.429 shares
- `0x86d0…c28b` — 2,000 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 5 |
| Window start | 2026-05-10T18:00:23.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-10T21:33:05.000Z |
| Range | 50¢ → 100¢ |
| Net change | +50.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=dota2-playti-ngx-2026-05-10` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Dota 2: PlayTime vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - 1win Essence Playoffs — 100% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-10T21:34:47.214Z from https://orrery.me/markets/dota2-playti-ngx-2026-05-10.
```

---

*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*