# Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 100% implied probability of YES as of Thu, 21 May 2026 19:29:18 GMT. 24h change +40.5pp, 24h volume $704.9K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/dota2-ts8-aur1-2026-05-21-game1
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/dota2-ts8-aur1-2026-05-21-game1
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 21, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-21T19:29:18.417Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **100¢** (100%) |
| Δ 1h | +46.5pp |
| Δ 24h | +40.5pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $704.9K |
| Lifetime volume | $704.9K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $507.6K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 21, 2026

**Source:** https://www.dotabuff.com

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the Dota 2 Upper bracket semifinal 2 match between Team Spirit and Aurora in the DreamLeague Playoffs, initially scheduled for May 21 at 1:00PM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to "Team Spirit" if Team Spirit win Game 1 against Aurora.
> 
> This market will resolve to "Aurora" if Aurora win Game 1 against Team Spirit.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 1 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 1. 
> 
> If Game 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. 
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. 
> 
> The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 87%): Probability moved up 40.5pp in 24h with 1.4× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- **resolution_risk** (confidence 65%): Expires in 4h. UMA dispute is active.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x2c33…0563` — 141,190.315 shares
- `0xe16d…5e30` — 130,043.246 shares
- `0xfa58…31d6` — 60,000 shares
- `0x6049…f14f` — 21,640.95 shares
- `0xd3b0…329e` — 20,250 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xa5ea…d96a` — 181,346.188 shares
- `0x0dcf…c556` — 61,281.49 shares
- `0xffe9…a70e` — 24,999.977 shares
- `0x2146…d41b` — 21,785.372 shares
- `0x9eca…5a59` — 20,358.332 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 45 |
| Window start | 2026-05-19T23:00:10.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-21T18:54:06.000Z |
| Range | 50¢ → 100¢ |
| Net change | +50.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=dota2-ts8-aur1-2026-05-21-game1` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner — 100% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-21T19:29:18.417Z from https://orrery.me/markets/dota2-ts8-aur1-2026-05-21-game1.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*