# Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 0% implied probability of YES as of Thu, 21 May 2026 20:35:40 GMT. 24h change -58.0pp, 24h volume $670.0K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/dota2-ts8-aur1-2026-05-21-game2
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/dota2-ts8-aur1-2026-05-21-game2
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 21, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-21T20:35:40.315Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **0¢** (0%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | -58.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $670.0K |
| Lifetime volume | $670.0K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $364.8K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 21, 2026

**Source:** https://www.dotabuff.com

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the Dota 2 Upper bracket semifinal 2 match between Team Spirit and Aurora in the DreamLeague Playoffs, initially scheduled for May 21 at 1:00PM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to "Team Spirit" if Team Spirit win Game 2 against Aurora.
> 
> This market will resolve to "Aurora" if Aurora win Game 2 against Team Spirit.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 2 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 2. 
> 
> If Game 2 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. 
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. 
> 
> The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 65%): Expires in 3h. UMA dispute is active.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xe16d…5e30` — 89,919.252 shares
- `0x0dcf…c556` — 44,214.34 shares
- `0x698d…00b0` — 28,000 shares
- `0x3833…33d1` — 22,786.954 shares
- `0xdf27…026f` — 10,499.98 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xb489…de6b` — 60,060.06 shares
- `0x2eaa…7d1a` — 53,036.79 shares
- `0x2146…d41b` — 24,931.647 shares
- `0xfa88…85a5` — 15,002.382 shares
- `0x3af1…d739` — 13,978.322 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 39 |
| Window start | 2026-05-19T23:00:08.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-21T12:22:05.000Z |
| Range | 50¢ → 61¢ |
| Net change | +9.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=dota2-ts8-aur1-2026-05-21-game2` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner — 0% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-21T20:35:40.315Z from https://orrery.me/markets/dota2-ts8-aur1-2026-05-21-game2.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*