# Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 54% implied probability of YES as of Sun, 24 May 2026 13:51:42 GMT. 24h change +0.0pp, 24h volume $2.6K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/dota2-ts8-aur1-2026-05-24-game1
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/dota2-ts8-aur1-2026-05-24-game1
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 24, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-24T13:51:42.448Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **54¢** (54%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $2.6K |
| Lifetime volume | $2.6K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $14.5K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 24, 2026

**Source:** https://www.dotabuff.com

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the Dota 2 Lower Bracket Final match between Team Spirit and Aurora in the DreamLeague Playoffs, initially scheduled for May 24 at 7:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to "Team Spirit" if Team Spirit win Game 1 against Aurora.
> 
> This market will resolve to "Aurora" if Aurora win Game 1 against Team Spirit.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 1 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 1. 
> 
> If Game 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. 
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. 
> 
> The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Expires in 1h.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xe16d…5e30` — 112,473.041 shares
- `0x478a…8786` — 40,026.316 shares
- `0x03f8…d85a` — 23,250.929 shares
- `0x05a7…42e6` — 9,868.958 shares
- `0xc04e…75d9` — 9,320.64 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xb489…de6b` — 32,032.03 shares
- `0xffe9…a70e` — 31,499.993 shares
- `0xba8c…e77d` — 19,624.64 shares
- `0xa203…11bc` — 14,050 shares
- `0x3a09…f9f7` — 11,157.087 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 9 |
| Window start | 2026-05-23T21:00:04.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-24T04:59:04.000Z |
| Range | 54¢ → 56¢ |
| Net change | -2.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=dota2-ts8-aur1-2026-05-24-game1` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner — 54% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-24T13:51:42.448Z from https://orrery.me/markets/dota2-ts8-aur1-2026-05-24-game1.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*