# Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 100% implied probability of YES as of Thu, 14 May 2026 13:06:45 GMT. 24h change +62.5pp, 24h volume $298.3K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/dota2-xtreme-tundra-2026-05-14-game1
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/dota2-xtreme-tundra-2026-05-14-game1
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 14, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-14T13:06:45.758Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **100¢** (100%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +62.5pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $298.3K |
| Lifetime volume | $298.3K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $218.3K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 14, 2026

**Source:** https://www.dotabuff.com

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the Dota 2 match between Xtreme Gaming and Tundra Esports in the DreamLeague Group B, initially scheduled for May 14 at 6:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to "Xtreme Gaming" if Xtreme Gaming win Game 1 against Tundra Esports.
> 
> This market will resolve to "Tundra Esports" if Tundra Esports win Game 1 against Xtreme Gaming.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 1 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 1. 
> 
> If Game 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. 
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. 
> 
> The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 65%): Expires in 1h. UMA dispute is active.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x2eaa…7d1a` — 50,694.52 shares
- `0xe16d…5e30` — 18,099.53 shares
- `0x913c…39b3` — 7,894.32 shares
- `0xf3ce…a57a` — 5,971.698 shares
- `0x6c66…c204` — 4,155.047 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x9eca…5a59` — 22,552.285 shares
- `0x0e1b…ecaf` — 13,582.359 shares
- `0xd06c…cdaf` — 10,762.347 shares
- `0xef62…cf76` — 6,983.684 shares
- `0x507e…beae` — 6,821.255 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 48 |
| Window start | 2026-05-12T15:00:06.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-14T13:06:04.000Z |
| Range | 36¢ → 100¢ |
| Net change | +50.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=dota2-xtreme-tundra-2026-05-14-game1` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner — 100% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-14T13:06:45.758Z from https://orrery.me/markets/dota2-xtreme-tundra-2026-05-14-game1.
```

---

*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*