# Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 100% implied probability of YES as of Sun, 03 May 2026 08:48:29 GMT. 24h change +0.0pp, 24h volume $200.9K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/dota2-xtreme-vg-2026-05-03-game1
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/dota2-xtreme-vg-2026-05-03-game1
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 3, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-03T08:48:29.451Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **100¢** (100%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $200.9K |
| Lifetime volume | $200.9K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $79.3K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 3, 2026

**Source:** https://www.dotabuff.com

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the Dota 2 Lower bracket final match between Xtreme Gaming and Vici Gaming in the ACL X ESL Challenger China Playoffs, initially scheduled for May 3 at 1:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to "Xtreme Gaming" if Xtreme Gaming win Game 1 against Vici Gaming.
> 
> This market will resolve to "Vici Gaming" if Vici Gaming win Game 1 against Xtreme Gaming.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 1 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 1. 
> 
> If Game 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. 
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. 
> 
> The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 65%): Expires in 0h. UMA dispute is active.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xfe15…80b5` — 15,000 shares
- `0xda6a…5b40` — 12,179.97 shares
- `0xfa76…e588` — 3,421 shares
- `0xdcdd…73a5` — 2,244.317 shares
- `0x5530…d38d` — 1,499.54 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x2eaa…7d1a` — 25,518.24 shares
- `0x0e1b…ecaf` — 3,941.35 shares
- `0x62a9…3bb6` — 2,200.699 shares
- `0xe872…819a` — 1,860.041 shares
- `0x4133…165b` — 1,556.171 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 18 |
| Window start | 2026-05-02T16:00:05.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-03T08:48:06.000Z |
| Range | 50¢ → 100¢ |
| Net change | +50.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=dota2-xtreme-vg-2026-05-03-game1` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner — 100% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-03T08:48:29.451Z from https://orrery.me/markets/dota2-xtreme-vg-2026-05-03-game1.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*