# Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 14% implied probability of YES as of Sun, 03 May 2026 12:51:26 GMT. 24h change +5.0pp, 24h volume $130.6K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/elon-musk-of-tweets-april-28-may-5-120-139
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/elon-musk-of-tweets-april-28-may-5-120-139
**Category:** Tech
**Resolves by:** May 5, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-03T12:51:26.228Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **14¢** (14%) |
| Δ 1h | -0.2pp |
| Δ 24h | +5.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +13.6pp |
| 24h volume | $130.6K |
| Lifetime volume | $349.0K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $39.6K |
| Spread | 0.30pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 5, 2026

**Source:** https://x.com/elonmusk

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 28 12:00 PM ET to May 5, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
> 
> For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
> 
> Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
> 
> Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
> 
> Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
> 
> The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Expires in 51h.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xdc3a…47b0` — 30,050 shares
- `0x02b4…7092` — 30,000 shares
- `0x4067…6ffa` — 10,664.365 shares
- `0x0f7f…6450` — 8,161.67 shares
- `0x8eab…a56d` — 8,000 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xa5ef…2966` — 212,145.863 shares
- `0x7c6c…1f86` — 10,275.502 shares
- `0x36e7…0b6b` — 4,859.129 shares
- `0x9a3a…4580` — 4,130.374 shares
- `0xed34…a8c7` — 3,372.309 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 168 |
| Window start | 2026-04-26T13:00:09.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-03T12:50:06.000Z |
| Range | 0¢ → 50¢ |
| Net change | +13.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=elon-musk-of-tweets-april-28-may-5-120-139` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? — 14% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-03T12:51:26.228Z from https://orrery.me/markets/elon-musk-of-tweets-april-28-may-5-120-139.
```

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