# Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 36% implied probability of YES as of Sun, 03 May 2026 08:53:20 GMT. 24h change +14.2pp, 24h volume $100.7K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/elon-musk-of-tweets-april-28-may-5-140-159
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/elon-musk-of-tweets-april-28-may-5-140-159
**Category:** Tech
**Resolves by:** May 5, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-03T08:53:20.221Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **36¢** (36%) |
| Δ 1h | +3.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +14.2pp |
| Δ 1w | +34.6pp |
| 24h volume | $100.7K |
| Lifetime volume | $301.4K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $37.1K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 5, 2026

**Source:** https://x.com/elonmusk

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 28 12:00 PM ET to May 5, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
> 
> For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
> 
> Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
> 
> Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
> 
> Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
> 
> The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 95%): Probability moved up 14.2pp in 24h with 2.7× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Expires in 55h.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xdc3a…47b0` — 30,050 shares
- `0x02b4…7092` — 30,000 shares
- `0x4067…6ffa` — 10,665.02 shares
- `0x7c6c…1f86` — 9,802.41 shares
- `0x8eab…a56d` — 8,000 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xa5ef…2966` — 207,596.137 shares
- `0x63ed…437d` — 4,769.092 shares
- `0x1740…d7c0` — 3,999.991 shares
- `0xb4e9…f380` — 2,145.658 shares
- `0x074b…ffc9` — 1,299.983 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 168 |
| Window start | 2026-04-26T09:00:04.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-03T08:52:05.000Z |
| Range | 1¢ → 50¢ |
| Net change | +34.8pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=elon-musk-of-tweets-april-28-may-5-140-159` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? — 36% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-03T08:53:20.221Z from https://orrery.me/markets/elon-musk-of-tweets-april-28-may-5-140-159.
```

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