# Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 1% implied probability of YES as of Sat, 02 May 2026 21:08:34 GMT. 24h change +0.7pp, 24h volume $180.5K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/elon-musk-of-tweets-april-28-may-5-80-99
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/elon-musk-of-tweets-april-28-may-5-80-99
**Category:** Tech
**Resolves by:** May 5, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-02T21:08:34.287Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **1¢** (1%) |
| Δ 1h | -0.1pp |
| Δ 24h | +0.7pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.8pp |
| 24h volume | $180.5K |
| Lifetime volume | $603.3K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $37.5K |
| Spread | 0.30pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 5, 2026

**Source:** https://x.com/elonmusk

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 28 12:00 PM ET to May 5, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
> 
> For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
> 
> Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
> 
> Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
> 
> Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
> 
> The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Expires in 67h.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x2061…8ec9` — 58,887.884 shares
- `0x813e…5d51` — 30,260.11 shares
- `0x02b4…7092` — 30,000 shares
- `0x879d…b501` — 12,293.1 shares
- `0x146d…17c7` — 10,613.81 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xa5ef…2966` — 191,111.24 shares
- `0xbe73…33bf` — 7,420 shares
- `0xe855…a4ad` — 6,214 shares
- `0x43f0…1b3d` — 6,000 shares
- `0x34da…0111` — 5,799.99 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 168 |
| Window start | 2026-04-25T22:00:17.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-02T21:08:04.000Z |
| Range | 0¢ → 50¢ |
| Net change | +0.9pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=elon-musk-of-tweets-april-28-may-5-80-99` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? — 1% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-02T21:08:34.287Z from https://orrery.me/markets/elon-musk-of-tweets-april-28-may-5-80-99.
```

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