# Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 0% implied probability of YES as of Thu, 07 May 2026 02:03:07 GMT. 24h change +0.0pp, 24h volume $151.8K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/elon-musk-of-tweets-may-1-may-8-280-299
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/elon-musk-of-tweets-may-1-may-8-280-299
**Category:** Tech
**Resolves by:** May 8, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-07T02:03:07.403Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **0¢** (0%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 1w | -8.3pp |
| 24h volume | $151.8K |
| Lifetime volume | $254.7K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $83.8K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 8, 2026

**Source:** https://x.com/elonmusk

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 1 12:00 PM ET to May 8, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
> 
> For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
> 
> Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
> 
> Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
> 
> Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
> 
> The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Expires in 38h.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x2061…8ec9` — 65,553 shares
- `0x2179…bedb` — 16,594.926 shares
- `0x689a…779e` — 12,981.09 shares
- `0x4067…6ffa` — 11,967 shares
- `0x2935…96f7` — 9,999.951 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xa5ef…2966` — 227,737.921 shares
- `0xff7b…9179` — 30,000 shares
- `0xa606…8273` — 557.55 shares
- `0xaac2…e8ce` — 499.993 shares
- `0x7e5d…ab7e` — 292 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 166 |
| Window start | 2026-04-30T03:00:09.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-07T01:00:06.000Z |
| Range | 0¢ → 10¢ |
| Net change | -7.3pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=elon-musk-of-tweets-may-1-may-8-280-299` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? — 0% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-07T02:03:07.403Z from https://orrery.me/markets/elon-musk-of-tweets-may-1-may-8-280-299.
```

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