# Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 98% implied probability of YES as of Wed, 13 May 2026 09:55:25 GMT. 24h change +80.3pp, 24h volume $177.8K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/elon-musk-of-tweets-may-11-may-13-40-64
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/elon-musk-of-tweets-may-11-may-13-40-64
**Category:** Tech
**Resolves by:** May 13, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-13T09:55:25.176Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **98¢** (98%) |
| Δ 1h | +5.3pp |
| Δ 24h | +80.3pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $177.8K |
| Lifetime volume | $217.9K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $8.5K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 13, 2026

**Source:** https://x.com/elonmusk

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 11 12:00 PM ET to May 13, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
> 
> For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
> 
> Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
> 
> Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
> 
> Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
> 
> The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Expires in 6h.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x689a…779e` — 12,884.068 shares
- `0x35f3…cfd0` — 4,151.72 shares
- `0xb06a…52f5` — 3,686.112 shares
- `0x2924…dcde` — 3,529.94 shares
- `0x93fd…7e2f` — 3,499.532 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xa5ef…2966` — 67,774.701 shares
- `0x849c…4009` — 4,051.581 shares
- `0x74ff…be5b` — 2,553.351 shares
- `0xada5…46f4` — 1,206.038 shares
- `0x9057…c12c` — 1,200 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 87 |
| Window start | 2026-05-09T20:00:09.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-13T09:55:08.000Z |
| Range | 13¢ → 98¢ |
| Net change | +51.2pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=elon-musk-of-tweets-may-11-may-13-40-64` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? — 98% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-13T09:55:25.176Z from https://orrery.me/markets/elon-musk-of-tweets-may-11-may-13-40-64.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*