# Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 0% implied probability of YES as of Sat, 16 May 2026 10:06:51 GMT. 24h change -9.3pp, 24h volume $230.6K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/elon-musk-of-tweets-may-12-may-19-120-139
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/elon-musk-of-tweets-may-12-may-19-120-139
**Category:** Tech
**Resolves by:** May 19, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-16T10:06:51.294Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **0¢** (0%) |
| Δ 1h | -0.1pp |
| Δ 24h | -9.3pp |
| Δ 1w | -15.8pp |
| 24h volume | $230.6K |
| Lifetime volume | $434.6K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $61.2K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 19, 2026

**Source:** https://x.com/elonmusk

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 12 12:00 PM ET to May 19, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
> 
> For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
> 
> Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
> 
> Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
> 
> Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
> 
> The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 92%): Probability moved down 9.3pp in 24h with 3.8× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xc21e…e6d3` — 60,872.547 shares
- `0x02b4…7092` — 30,000 shares
- `0x0f7f…6450` — 14,676.163 shares
- `0x689a…779e` — 13,585.178 shares
- `0xa49b…7054` — 11,240.639 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xa5ef…2966` — 257,841.31 shares
- `0x43f0…1b3d` — 11,999.979 shares
- `0x7d67…029f` — 10,385 shares
- `0x77cf…a179` — 10,356.402 shares
- `0x4daf…3d99` — 10,297.69 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 168 |
| Window start | 2026-05-09T11:00:07.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-16T10:06:06.000Z |
| Range | 0¢ → 27¢ |
| Net change | -15.8pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=elon-musk-of-tweets-may-12-may-19-120-139` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? — 0% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-16T10:06:51.294Z from https://orrery.me/markets/elon-musk-of-tweets-may-12-may-19-120-139.
```

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