# Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 7% implied probability of YES as of Sun, 17 May 2026 04:46:51 GMT. 24h change -11.8pp, 24h volume $156.8K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/elon-musk-of-tweets-may-12-may-19-160-179
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/elon-musk-of-tweets-may-12-may-19-160-179
**Category:** Tech
**Resolves by:** May 19, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-17T04:46:51.660Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **7¢** (7%) |
| Δ 1h | +1.8pp |
| Δ 24h | -11.8pp |
| Δ 1w | -13.9pp |
| 24h volume | $156.8K |
| Lifetime volume | $365.6K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $24.1K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 19, 2026

**Source:** https://x.com/elonmusk

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 12 12:00 PM ET to May 19, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
> 
> For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
> 
> Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
> 
> Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
> 
> Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
> 
> The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Expires in 59h.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x02b4…7092` — 30,000 shares
- `0x689a…779e` — 17,901.97 shares
- `0x77c8…bc8c` — 17,000.215 shares
- `0x0f7f…6450` — 14,676.163 shares
- `0xa49b…7054` — 10,517.796 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xa5ef…2966` — 277,510.472 shares
- `0x6d3f…a942` — 7,373.373 shares
- `0x2061…8ec9` — 3,332.931 shares
- `0xb042…14f3` — 1,500.006 shares
- `0x12e6…d6cd` — 1,430 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 168 |
| Window start | 2026-05-10T05:00:09.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-17T04:46:06.000Z |
| Range | 3¢ → 27¢ |
| Net change | -14.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=elon-musk-of-tweets-may-12-may-19-160-179` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? — 7% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-17T04:46:51.660Z from https://orrery.me/markets/elon-musk-of-tweets-may-12-may-19-160-179.
```

---

*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*