# Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 2% implied probability of YES as of Sun, 17 May 2026 09:27:38 GMT. 24h change -1.0pp, 24h volume $130.8K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/elon-musk-of-tweets-may-12-may-19-260-279
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/elon-musk-of-tweets-may-12-may-19-260-279
**Category:** Tech
**Resolves by:** May 19, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-17T09:27:38.311Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **2¢** (2%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.2pp |
| Δ 24h | -1.0pp |
| Δ 1w | -0.3pp |
| 24h volume | $130.8K |
| Lifetime volume | $276.0K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $27.0K |
| Spread | 0.20pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 19, 2026

**Source:** https://x.com/elonmusk

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 12 12:00 PM ET to May 19, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
> 
> For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
> 
> Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
> 
> Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
> 
> Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
> 
> The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Expires in 55h.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x02b4…7092` — 30,000 shares
- `0x689a…779e` — 29,761.08 shares
- `0x17f1…af18` — 21,903.76 shares
- `0x0224…292a` — 20,923.38 shares
- `0xd8c4…848d` — 16,284.42 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xa5ef…2966` — 278,411.435 shares
- `0xdf0a…08e8` — 19,999.975 shares
- `0x2809…10dc` — 4,141.13 shares
- `0x1612…7287` — 2,655 shares
- `0x0472…fc04` — 1,887.23 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 168 |
| Window start | 2026-05-10T10:00:11.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-17T09:27:08.000Z |
| Range | 1¢ → 6¢ |
| Net change | +0.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=elon-musk-of-tweets-may-12-may-19-260-279` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? — 2% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-17T09:27:38.311Z from https://orrery.me/markets/elon-musk-of-tweets-may-12-may-19-260-279.
```

---

*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*