# Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 15% implied probability of YES as of Fri, 22 May 2026 17:05:43 GMT. 24h change -17.2pp, 24h volume $388.3K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/elon-musk-of-tweets-may-15-may-22-280-299
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/elon-musk-of-tweets-may-15-may-22-280-299
**Category:** Tech
**Resolves by:** May 22, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-22T17:05:43.254Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **15¢** (15%) |
| Δ 1h | -7.5pp |
| Δ 24h | -17.2pp |
| Δ 1w | +13.4pp |
| 24h volume | $388.3K |
| Lifetime volume | $861.0K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $15.1K |
| Spread | 1.80pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 22, 2026

**Source:** https://x.com/elonmusk

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 15 12:00 PM ET to May 22, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
> 
> For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
> 
> Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
> 
> Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
> 
> Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
> 
> The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x689a…779e` — 91,281.866 shares
- `0x02b4…7092` — 30,000 shares
- `0xbb9c…072b` — 19,512.558 shares
- `0x8eab…a56d` — 14,773.023 shares
- `0x3690…e16f` — 11,145.77 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xa5ef…2966` — 398,114.316 shares
- `0xc41e…e2e9` — 14,999.955 shares
- `0xff4e…5502` — 5,000 shares
- `0xac4a…bf1e` — 4,711.609 shares
- `0x45e1…5934` — 4,274.549 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 167 |
| Window start | 2026-05-15T18:00:13.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-22T17:04:04.000Z |
| Range | 2¢ → 100¢ |
| Net change | +96.2pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=elon-musk-of-tweets-may-15-may-22-280-299` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? — 15% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-22T17:05:43.254Z from https://orrery.me/markets/elon-musk-of-tweets-may-15-may-22-280-299.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*