# Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 10% implied probability of YES as of Thu, 21 May 2026 23:55:13 GMT. 24h change +7.3pp, 24h volume $281.0K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/elon-musk-of-tweets-may-15-may-22-300-319
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/elon-musk-of-tweets-may-15-may-22-300-319
**Category:** Tech
**Resolves by:** May 22, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-21T23:55:13.267Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **10¢** (10%) |
| Δ 1h | +1.9pp |
| Δ 24h | +7.3pp |
| Δ 1w | +8.1pp |
| 24h volume | $281.0K |
| Lifetime volume | $628.2K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $48.7K |
| Spread | 0.20pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 22, 2026

**Source:** https://x.com/elonmusk

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 15 12:00 PM ET to May 22, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
> 
> For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
> 
> Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
> 
> Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
> 
> Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
> 
> The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 86%): Probability moved up 7.3pp in 24h with 5.8× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Expires in 16h.

## Recent large trades on this market

| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | USD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 21, 23:50 UTC | `Clueless-Arrest` | BUY | NO | $44.30 |

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xc21e…e6d3` — 46,476.917 shares
- `0x02b4…7092` — 30,000 shares
- `0xd8c4…848d` — 17,652.332 shares
- `0x3690…e16f` — 11,073.917 shares
- `0xb796…58a8` — 10,000 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xa5ef…2966` — 316,660.008 shares
- `0x2061…8ec9` — 13,312.685 shares
- `0xdf0a…08e8` — 9,999.991 shares
- `0x5822…8774` — 8,398.493 shares
- `0x45e1…5934` — 7,804.41 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 166 |
| Window start | 2026-05-15T00:00:09.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-21T23:01:07.000Z |
| Range | 1¢ → 47¢ |
| Net change | +7.8pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=elon-musk-of-tweets-may-15-may-22-300-319` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? — 10% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-21T23:55:13.267Z from https://orrery.me/markets/elon-musk-of-tweets-may-15-may-22-300-319.
```

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