# Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 81% implied probability of YES as of Tue, 26 May 2026 17:54:35 GMT. 24h change +36.0pp, 24h volume $109.0K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/elon-musk-of-tweets-may-19-may-26-260-279
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/elon-musk-of-tweets-may-19-may-26-260-279
**Category:** Tech
**Resolves by:** May 26, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-26T17:54:35.072Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **81¢** (81%) |
| Δ 1h | +1.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +36.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $109.0K |
| Lifetime volume | $422.7K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $15.7K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 26, 2026

**Source:** https://x.com/elonmusk

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 19 12:00 PM ET to May 26, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
> 
> For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
> 
> Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
> 
> Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
> 
> Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
> 
> The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xbb9c…072b` — 43,865.69 shares
- `0x02b4…7092` — 30,000 shares
- `0x689a…779e` — 28,044.611 shares
- `0xf5d9…be50` — 24,000 shares
- `0x8eab…a56d` — 22,035 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xa5ef…2966` — 331,603.426 shares
- `0xf2f2…1762` — 30,708.054 shares
- `0x6d3f…a942` — 11,639.19 shares
- `0x30cf…704a` — 9,999.974 shares
- `0x2d4c…2e02` — 3,110.351 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 146 |
| Window start | 2026-05-20T17:00:06.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-26T17:54:06.000Z |
| Range | 5¢ → 100¢ |
| Net change | +87.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=elon-musk-of-tweets-may-19-may-26-260-279` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? — 81% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-26T17:54:35.072Z from https://orrery.me/markets/elon-musk-of-tweets-may-19-may-26-260-279.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*