# Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 1% implied probability of YES as of Tue, 26 May 2026 05:25:26 GMT. 24h change -8.1pp, 24h volume $215.3K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/elon-musk-of-tweets-may-19-may-26-300-319
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/elon-musk-of-tweets-may-19-may-26-300-319
**Category:** Tech
**Resolves by:** May 26, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-26T05:25:26.077Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **1¢** (1%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | -8.1pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $215.3K |
| Lifetime volume | $458.9K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $32.6K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 26, 2026

**Source:** https://x.com/elonmusk

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 19 12:00 PM ET to May 26, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
> 
> For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
> 
> Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
> 
> Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
> 
> Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
> 
> The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Expires in 11h.

## Recent large trades on this market

| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | USD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 26, 05:23 UTC | `Dark-Action` | BUY | YES | $1.05 |

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x02b4…7092` — 30,000 shares
- `0x48c5…89f3` — 18,999 shares
- `0x689a…779e` — 15,326.48 shares
- `0x4067…6ffa` — 11,576.839 shares
- `0xbbdc…5d81` — 11,169.779 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xa5ef…2966` — 273,009.321 shares
- `0xdf0a…08e8` — 30,215.018 shares
- `0x913f…c676` — 20,803.672 shares
- `0x7463…d2a6` — 8,103.24 shares
- `0x1612…7287` — 4,734.47 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 132 |
| Window start | 2026-05-20T17:00:07.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-26T03:28:05.000Z |
| Range | 1¢ → 22¢ |
| Net change | -9.7pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=elon-musk-of-tweets-may-19-may-26-300-319` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? — 1% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-26T05:25:26.077Z from https://orrery.me/markets/elon-musk-of-tweets-may-19-may-26-300-319.
```

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