# Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 12% implied probability of YES as of Sun, 03 May 2026 12:50:37 GMT. 24h change +1.0pp, 24h volume $130.0K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/elon-musk-of-tweets-may-2-may-4-0-39
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/elon-musk-of-tweets-may-2-may-4-0-39
**Category:** Tech
**Resolves by:** May 4, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-03T12:50:37.320Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **12¢** (12%) |
| Δ 1h | -2.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +1.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $130.0K |
| Lifetime volume | $145.1K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $25.2K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 4, 2026

**Source:** https://x.com/elonmusk

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 2 12:00 PM ET to May 4, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
> 
> For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
> 
> Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
> 
> Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
> 
> Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
> 
> The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Expires in 27h.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x02b4…7092` — 10,000 shares
- `0x2924…dcde` — 3,497.943 shares
- `0x7141…8345` — 3,087.328 shares
- `0x8288…5519` — 3,000 shares
- `0x35f3…cfd0` — 2,583.982 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xa5ef…2966` — 47,286.098 shares
- `0x689a…779e` — 4,633.89 shares
- `0xdaba…23f5` — 3,388.349 shares
- `0x3237…dbd4` — 2,499.993 shares
- `0x738d…cc21` — 2,499.992 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 68 |
| Window start | 2026-04-30T17:00:12.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-03T12:50:06.000Z |
| Range | 6¢ → 61¢ |
| Net change | +3.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=elon-musk-of-tweets-may-2-may-4-0-39` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? — 12% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-03T12:50:37.320Z from https://orrery.me/markets/elon-musk-of-tweets-may-2-may-4-0-39.
```

---

*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*